Returnees add spice to Jo'burg real estate market, as predicted

When Chas Everitt started spreading the word, a year ago, about reverse semigration from Cape Town to Johannesburg and the "brain regain" in the city as the return of expats to South Africa gathered momentum, there was a lot of scepticism.

"However the proof of the pudding, as they say, is in the eating - and 2024 was certainly a delicious year for our Johannesburg offices," says Rory O'Hagan, principal of Chas Everitt Hyde Park & Sandton.

"Our total value of sales for the year was over R1,24-billion, with almost 500 properties sold in Bedfordview, Midrand and the northern suburbs of Johannesburg. 

And the last quarter of the year included the sale of several more high-end properties, including a much-admired Japanese style home in Northcliff (see: https://bit.ly/3Epw7pC) which had been on the market for four years, an R8,4m home in Craighall Park and two R19m homes in Westcliff." 

Read more: The GNU effect: Jo'burg property sales rising fast

The market has definitely gathered speed since the formation of the GNU in June and the announcement of two interest rate cuts in September and November 2024, he says. "Prospective buyers have noted the steady progress being made with fixing Johannesburg's infrastructure, and November was a record month for us. We were also extremely busy all the way through December, which is usually a quiet month in Johannesburg, and even had agents taking offers on Christmas Eve and New Year's Day.

"What is more, the official stats are now showing that our predictions of a turnaround in the Johannesburg property market are rapidly coming true as the number of buyers returning from Cape Town and overseas continues to grow and demand rebounds from its post-pandemic lows."

The lates statistics from property data company Lightstone show, for example, that 2024 saw a decline in the number of people semigrating to the Western Cape compared to 2022 - and also that Gauteng now attracts around 40% of the property owners who change provinces after selling their homes, while the Western Cape only attracts around 20% of those sellers.

"Meanwhile the latest FNB Property Barometer notes a sharp rise in activity in Gauteng as well as the Western Cape following last year's rate cuts, and the January Property Brief from BetterBond shows that while the national average house price rose by a nominal 4,3% last year, the Johannesburg North region (5,7%) was one of three to beat this average, with the others being the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga," O'Hagan notes.

Read more: Is Joburg emerging from its housing slump?

"In addition, the Johannesburg metro continues to account for around 36% of all home loan applications, compared to the 19% received from the whole of the Western Cape, which is losing semigrants now due to high property costs, traffic congestion in Cape Town and harsh winters.

"Return-to-work mandates issued by many companies headquartered in Johannesburg are also prompting many of those who relocated to Cape Town after Covid to return full-time, instead of coping with the hassle of weekly commuting."

All of this indicates a significant change of fortune for residential property in Johannesburg, which is further reflected in the most recent Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) from StatsSA. This shows that prices in Gauteng actually began to show an increase in August last year, following a long period of decline, and that the Johannesburg metro was largely responsible for this move into positive territory.

"And we foresee that things will continue to look up for Johannesburg home sellers in 2025 as interest rates continue to fall, the economy expands and demand rises. However, they should really not take this as their cue to raise their asking prices. Many households in SA are still suffering the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates over the past few years, so the excellent value for money currently on offer in the Johannesburg property market is one of the biggest draw cards for prospective buyers.

"Home sellers should rather focus on setting competitive asking prices and attracting as many prospective buyers as possible so that they can achieving a speedy sale now and also buy their next home at a great price."

Issued by Chas Everitt International

For more information

Call Rory O'Hagan on

+27 83 328 8888

Or visit www.chaseveritt.co.za